Before starting with some advice, it is essential to emphasize that betting is not an exact science, and whoever thinks following some advice and rules will mathematically obtain economic benefits is wrong. You must take into account that this activity is a form of leisure. If it is carried out with discipline, it can sometimes bring economic benefits, but the idea is not to approach it as a profession or a way of life. Of course, if you face it with your head, some methods help us minimize losses and increase the chances of obtaining some money. Try to bet on m22Bet.
The first thing to consider when starting betting is your bankroll. When we decide to bet, we must assume that we will lose money at some point. Despite choosing options with a high probability of success, it will be inevitable to fail on some bet, so we must always be sure not to play money beyond our means. The amounts may vary depending on our banking and the type of bet, but in any case, the good idea is that the individual bet never exceeds 2.5% of our starting bankroll. Keeping a detailed record of the amounts wagered can help us deal with winnings and losses more serenely.
The strategy is essential, and there are many betting systems that, depending on the field, can help us define it. Undoubtedly, some of them can be interesting. But always bear in mind the circumstances of these systems. It may have changed over time or due to the actions of the bookmakers. The reasoning of the bet will, in all probability, be our best system.
Another good practice to follow if you are a novice is to place your first bets without investing your money, that is, without actually betting. If you know well an area in which you want to try your luck, the first few times, you can write down your “betting intention” on a piece of paper and then check what the percentage of success has been. When you see that this is positive, start cautiously and with small amounts.
An obvious detail to consider when betting and not everyone carries out is completely lucid. It is stupid to do it under the influence of any circumstance that can lower your mind’s guard, such as alcohol or any drug and the effect of some disease or illness.
When to close bets
Like any game of chance, the world of sports betting contains an inherent risk that we must accept from the first moment we start playing. However, many bookmakers have added the close bet option to “minimize” that risk and partially ensure profits for a few years.
What consists of closing a bet
First of all, let’s understand well what Closing a bet is:
- Closing a bet means agreeing to collect the bet early for less than the expected winnings. It is an attractive option designed to guarantee the benefit if the bet is at risk.
We are given this option from when we make a bet until, usually, minutes before the end of the event. And the amount offered to us at closing will vary according to the odds value at that very moment.
At first glance, it seems simple, and we find it a desirable option in any situation: for example, if we bet on the local victory and the team goes ahead on the scoreboard in the first minutes, we can close the bet in the middle part, and we will obtain profits without suffering.
It’s tempting. Well, the reality is much more complex than it seems, and then we will tell you why.
A common mistake in amateur players
With the option to close bets, the bookies take advantage of the amateur player’s fear of losing a bet and show him a less bad option so that the player accepts the deal without stopping to think about it carefully.
Why closing bets is not a profitable strategy
Bookmakers are big companies with many people behind them studying how to make more money. They are constantly improving their algorithms and offering the most tempting options to encourage the participation of new players. For these reasons, they know very well what they do, what they say, and how they say it, so you must always question everything they want to sell us.
We take this opportunity to remember that the world of sports betting is a game. And therefore, you must take it as such. Betting responsibly and not gambling more money than you can lose is the first rule, and you should never forget it.
Let’s see why closing bets is not a profitable option in the long term.
To begin with, we must bear in mind that when placing a bet, we are already giving money to the bookmaker, whether we win or lose the bet. The odds of a bet show the probability that one of the selections of the bet will occur, so if we were to add all the options (for example, 1, x, and 2), it would have to give us a result of 100 %. But this is not the case: the added fees add up to more than 100%, so the houses always charge an implicit commission in advance, usually 2-8%. They are guaranteed to earn money.
As if that were not enough, we give away more money by pressing the close bet button, specifically between 5 and 8% more.
The matter that they offer us when closing a bet will always be less than the value of the quota that our bet has at that very moment.
On the other hand, the progressive depreciation of the average quota will transform the option of closing bets into an unprofitable strategy in the long term.
We must bear in mind that when closing bets, we are earning less money than we expected: the odds of 1.9 that seemed very interesting before the event can remain at 1.5 or less when closing the bet, odds that we would surely not have entered due to a mistake of value.
By closing bets regularly, we are lowering our average quota little by little. Let’s see it more clearly with a practical example:
Let’s imagine that we have a history of 100 bets in which we usually make bets at an average odds of 1.8. This gives us a target threshold of 55.55%, which means that a success percentage greater than 55.55% will provide us with long-term profits. According to our betting strategy, our winning percentage is close to 63%, so our betting system is profitable in the long run.
If we start closing bets regularly, as we have seen before, our average odds will begin to drop (from 1.8 to 1.6, then to 1.5…), which will mean that the target threshold will rise, dangerously approaching our success rate.
Suppose our system is giving us a 63% success rate. As the target threshold grows, it will be increasingly difficult to profit. In that case, more bets will need to be won to maintain profitability, and in the long run, we will not be profitable. Fear will end up eating our profit margin.
Remember that if your long-term profitability is positive, the times you close early and end up losing the bet will surely be less than the times you end up winning. If you trust your judgment and make a decision, you should stick to it.
That is why it is essential to respect your betting system, especially for regular players who want to be profitable in the long term. Getting a betting system to be profitable in the long term and have a winning percentage of more than 55% costs a lot, so making a habit of closing bets will endanger your profitability. Growing your percentage of success is much more expensive than analyzing each situation well and avoiding closing bets in a rush.
When is it advisable to close?
That said, we want to clarify that closing bets is an option that, although not recommended a priori, can be interesting on certain occasions. Let’s see some of them:
Large combos and high odds. On those occasions in which we build a combination of several selections or a single bet with a high quota, closing the bet when they give us acceptable profits will be more than an exciting option since the odds of winning it will be very small. A clear example could be a fun bet in which there are one or two events left, and they already give us a large part of the profits, or in long-term high-odds bets, in which, depending on the evolution of events, closing the bet can give us a good pinch.
Risk of withdrawal/loss. In bets that we are following the event life, if an important player is injured or there is a real risk that the bet won’t go wrong, it may be advisable to close it before time. A good example would be a match in the final minutes, and the opposing team is attacking. And our team has also been left with 10. A good reading of the match will be vital in determining if it is a good option or not.
Common sense. Although it seems obvious, you rarely think coldly before closing a bet. To determine if it is good to close or not, you have to have common sense and understand well the moment in which the bet is. It must always be taken into account that the amount with which we close the bet continues to have value: that they give us 90-95% of the expected profits, or that at least what we are going to stop winning when closing is less than the What are we going to win if we don’t close? If the conclusions’ earnings are less than what we stopped earning, it doesn’t make sense.
Our final recommendation
There is no infallibility when deciding when to close bets. That’s why we have left you some of the most common situations in which it would be advisable to close. But what must be taken into account in typical situations, leaving aside fun bets or the like, is that we only close when closing the bet has value.
After all, if you want to be a profitable and successful player, you have to take into account the following:
The rational part of the bettor is essential. There is a lot of psychological work in it. It is worth reminding ourselves that for three times that we have lost in the last few minutes, we have won 50 bets without closing and having to pay commission to the bookie.
You have to lose the fear of failing; the recreational bettor always wants to be correct. On the contrary, the professional wants to win more money than he loses and profits long-term. He assumes that he is going to have losses, nobody is 100% correct, but he will look for them to be less than the profits. If you want to dedicate yourself to the world of betting, you have to have a methodology, a discipline, and some rules and not get carried away by emotions. In each game, you have to make a clean slate, forget the bad past experiences and use the close bet button with your head.